What the 2026 Texas Primaries May Signal for Public Education
As I write this a few days after the March 2026 Texas primaries, the biggest takeaway from the elections for me is that Texans are engaged—which is typically very good news for public education. Here are some numbers.
Across the Board, Voter Turnout Is Up in Texas
The number of registered voters continued to rise to an all-time high of 18.7 million. This represents an increase of 1.5 million Texans registered to vote compared with 2022, the last midterm election, and an increase of 3.5 million since 2018.
Not only were more folks registered for this election, but also a significantly higher percentage of those who were registered actually voted compared with the two most recent midterm elections or the 2024 presidential election. Although a slightly higher percentage of registered voters turned out in the 2020 presidential primary, the total number of voters this year was greater due to the larger pool of registered voters.
In total, nearly 4.5 million voters, or 24% of those registered, turned out to the polls. That represents a:
- 36% increase over turnout in 2022, when just over 3 million voters participated
- 41% increase over 2018, when just over 2.5 million voters voted
Turnout Trends Differ Between Parties
While both parties saw increased turnout this cycle, both in percentage and number of voters, the increases were not uniform. While Republican turnout increased slightly over the 2022 midterm election, the Democratic turnout nearly doubled, and the number of Democratic voters more than doubled.
| Party | 2018 Turnout | 2022 Turnout | 2026 Turnout | Change (2022→2026) | Voter Increase (2022→2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 10.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | +0.2 pts | +200,000+ voters |
| Democrat | 6.8% | 6.3% | 12.4% | +6.1 pts (~97%) | +1.24 million voters |
In other words, Democratic turnout grew much faster this cycle, while Republican turnout saw modest increases.
Perhaps the most interesting statistic: It appears that as many as one-third of voters in the Democratic primary were independents or unaffiliated voters—folks whose voting history includes both parties or those who had never voted in a primary or in any Texas election.
So What Do All These Numbers Mean?
While the numbers alone are fascinating to policy wonks and election nerds—like myself—most people want to know the impact of this turnout on the policies they actually care about.
Before we get to that, it is first important to note that voting in the primary does not necessarily mean someone will vote in the general election, though they are statistically more likely to. Primary participation also does not mean they will vote for the same party in the general election, though again, they are more likely to.
Second, as high as turnout for this primary was, it is probably only about half of what we will see in November. In 2022, general election turnout was just under 42%, and in 2018 it was 45.6%. We do not yet know who the additional voters turning out in November will be or how they will vote.
I mention these caveats because ultimately the November election will determine how state leadership approaches public education policy in the next legislative session.
With that in mind, the overperformance in two key metrics—the huge number of first-time primary voters in the Democratic primary and the better-than-expected performance of Sen. John Cornyn, considered the more moderate candidate in the U.S. Senate Republican primary—may indicate the electorate is looking to balance the scales toward more moderate stances and the prioritization of more substantive issues from our elected leaders.
If that bears out in November, it could be a positive sign for public education issues in the next legislative session.
The last time November turnout approached parity between the parties was 2018, and the following session was generally considered one of the best for public education in recent memory. In that instance, the majority party still won every statewide race, but the narrower margins encouraged them to step back from more extreme issues and instead focus on wooing moderate swing voters through their legislative action.
If the primaries are any indication, November 2026 could be even more impactful than November 2018. Only time—and continued voter engagement—will tell.
Monty Exter
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